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  Blu-ray In China? Not So Fast
June 12, 2008

In February 2008, Toshiba announced it would stop producing HD DVD products, ending the two year war between HD DVD and Sony's Blu-ray. With the imminent arrival of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, sales of high definition products is growing rapidly, and Blu-ray looks to have a bright future.

While Blu-ray is the standard versus HD DVD, the question is how strong are Blu-ray products poised in the China markets? The answer may not be as clear as it first appears.

Price is too high and Blu-ray content lacking.

The price is currently too high for the average Chinese consumer; the threshold is too high to for what otherwise would be a "good enough" viewing experience with much lower priced DVD players.

Compounding the price issue is the relative lack of content for Blu-ray. The challenge then becomes two-fold: lower prices and more content. While these challenges will eventually be overcome, the question is whether the time lag is enough to allow other high definition solutions to develop in China.

High definition video transmission and downloads offer alternatives.

China's broadcast, cable, and satellite operators are upgrading their infrastructure to deliver high definition programming and to solve low bandwidth concerns. More high definition content will be available. While Blu-ray may have a slight edge in quality, its products may risk being pushed to the high-end niche market.

High definition online and cable on-demand viewing via set-top boxes are also faster growing alternatives. Explosion of online video websites, while not necessarily in high definition, is inculcating video viewing habits over optical disc content. Moreover, the Chinese consumer is more likely to have their own digital libraries, in which audio, video, and text will be stored, managed searched, and viewed.

The race may come down to providing faster bandwidth versus lowering Blu-ray prices with more content.

CH-DVD another possible alternative.

CH-DVD (China High Definition DVD) is also a high definition optical disc format proposed by the Optical Memory National Engineering Research Center (OMNERC) of Tsinghua University in China back in September 2007.

There are similarities between CH-DVD and Toshiba's HD DVD. By agreement, Toshiba will keep supporting CH-DVD projects both in technology and market development. Blu-ray's new success may also have the effect of accelerating adoption of this alternate CH-DVD standard by Chinese domestic vendors and content providers.

In short, Blu-ray has some unique challenges to overcome in China, and may have a time pressure given China's faster growing alternatives to high definition video viewing.

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