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1H08 PMP Growth Declines In China,
But Outlook Positive
September
3, 2008China's 1H 2008 PMP
(portable media player) shipments reached 562.1 thousand, down 4.6% YOY,
while revenues reached 7.67 million, down 35% YOY. CCID Consulting believes
that the Beijing 2008 Olympics helped mitigate more severe declines, and the
outlook is more positive for the second half.
|
PMP |
1Q07 |
2Q07 |
3Q07 |
4Q07 |
1Q08 |
2Q08 |
|
Shipments (thousands) |
280.1 |
309.0 |
298.3 |
285.3 |
282.6 |
279.5 |
|
Shipment QOQ
Growth (%) |
54.60% |
10.30% |
3.50% |
-4.30% |
-0.90% |
-1.10% |
|
Revenues (millions
Yuan) |
5.68 |
6.12 |
5.23 |
4.74 |
4.17 |
3.50 |
|
Revenue QOQ
Growth (%) |
39.8% |
7.70% |
-14.60% |
-9.30% |
-12.00% |
-14.90% |
source: ccid
consulting, July 2008
Note: PMP excludes pure-audio and video
MP3 players. For MP3 player TrendWatch, see China's 1H08 MP3
Player Market Down. Combined 1H08 shipments of PMP and MP3 players reached
3.07 million, down 39.19% YOY, while revenues reached 1.99 billion Yuan,
down a more dramatic 40.51% YOY.
|
PMP and MP3
Player |
1H06 |
1H07 |
1H08 |
|
Shipments (thousands) |
3,516.9 |
5,046.4 |
3,068.7 |
|
Change YOY
(%) |
–– |
43.49% |
-39.19% |
source: ccid
consulting, July 2008
Flash memory PMPs surpassed HD PMPs.
Flash memory is becoming the vendors' choice over HD (hard disc). Over 70%
of PMP shipments are flash-based in June 2008, a large jump from 44.2% just
in January 2008. (Note that for MP3 players, over 99% of all MP3 player
shipments are flash-based.)
|
PMP Shipment
Share by Type |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
April |
May |
June |
|
Flash |
44.24% |
48.14% |
48.34% |
50.29% |
53.44% |
71.07% |
|
HD |
55.76% |
51.86% |
51.66% |
49.71% |
46.56% |
28.93% |
|
Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
source: ccid
consulting, July 2008
Flash memory offers a number of advantages
of HD, including longer battery life for the player, more compact size,
lower failure rates, lower prices, and increasing capacities. 1G was the
mainstream in 2006, but now 2G and 4G are increasingly common. Some vendors
have even launched 8G products. This is significant, as large capacities are
needed to support video in PMPs. Flash PMPs continue to look promising.
Prices of flash PMPs declined steadily, but HD PMPs dropped even more.
Overall PMP prices continue to drop, as HD PMP prices drop even more, but
start at higher price points.
|
PMP Average
Prices (Yuan) |
1Q07 |
2Q07 |
3Q07 |
4Q07 |
1Q08 |
2Q08 |
|
Flash |
992 |
854 |
835 |
867 |
772 |
759 |
|
HD |
2,292 |
2,295 |
2,115 |
2,050 |
2,095 |
2,018 |
|
Combine |
2,029 |
1,981 |
1,753 |
1,662 |
1,476 |
1,280 |
source: ccid
consulting, July 2008
From a capacity perspective, 2GB PMPs
dropped the most over the six-month period of 1H08. Other capacities were
steadier in their price declines. Moreover, there is an overall convergence
towards the 600 – 700 Yuan price segment.
|
PMP Average
Prices (Yuan) |
1Q07 |
2Q07 |
3Q07 |
4Q07 |
1Q08 |
2Q08 |
|
1GB |
869 |
686 |
692 |
711 |
633 |
607 |
|
2GB |
1,265 |
1,210 |
1,176 |
879 |
747 |
714 |
|
4GB |
927 |
926 |
926 |
946 |
728 |
708 |
|
8GB |
2,393 |
2,334 |
2,216 |
2,136 |
2,270 |
2,136 |
source: ccid
consulting, July 2008
2H08 Trends To Watch
- The Beijing 2008 Olympics after-glow
will stimulate new wave of growth. CCID Consulting projects 40% growth in
2H08.
- Richer products, lower prices. In 2H08,
PMP prices will continue to drop, along with new features and
functionality, such as more audio formats, larger screen sizes, better
display quality, and higher storage capacities.
- Vendors are shifting to branding from
price. The primary means of competition was low prices in 2007, but in
2008, vendors are emphasizing branding and differentiation over price.
Some larger second-tier vendors are also actively promoting their brand.
For more information
Please
contact us for these and
other China-related data, information and products.
Unless otherwise specified,
all information provided is sourced from CCID Consulting.
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